Newcastle United are preparing to host Aston Villa at St. James' Park on Boxing Day in a fixture that holds significant implications for both clubs' ambitions for a top-four finish in the Premier League. With just two points and two places separating the teams in the league standings, this encounter promises to be a thrilling contest.
Newcastle have experienced a resurgence after a challenging start to the season, where they managed only two wins from their first eleven league matches. The Magpies have recently celebrated two emphatic 4-0 victories, first against Leicester City and then Ipswich Town. Alexander Isak's remarkable hat-trick at Portman Road has further solidified his status as a key figure in manager Eddie Howe's attacking strategy, while Jacob Murphy's contributions have bolstered the potency of Newcastle's forward line.
Currently sitting eighth in the league, Newcastle trail Manchester City by a single point and find themselves two points behind Aston Villa. Historically, they have been dominant at home against Villa, remaining unbeaten in their last fifteen Premier League meetings at St. James' Park. However, the Magpies have struggled on Boxing Day in recent years, suffering three consecutive defeats, including a 3-1 setback against Nottingham Forest last season.
Newcastle's aspirations for European football extend beyond league play, as they have also reached the semi-finals of the EFL Cup after overcoming Brentford. They will be keen to leverage their home advantage to maintain pressure in the race for European qualification.
In contrast, Aston Villa, under the guidance of Unai Emery, have excelled at home but have faced difficulties on the road, suffering four straight defeats in the Premier League. This disappointing run includes losses to Nottingham Forest and other mid-table rivals. Nevertheless, Villa's sixth-place standing has been buoyed by a recent victory over Manchester City, where Jhon Duran and Morgan Rogers scored to secure a crucial 2-1 win.
Villa’s struggles away from home starkly contrast their impressive performances this season, which include notable successes in both the Champions League and domestic competitions. They will aim to break a concerning trend, having lost their first match after Christmas for the last three years, conceding three goals each time.
Emery will be looking for a strong response from his squad to rectify their away form. A win at St. James' Park would demonstrate Villa's ability to compete against top-tier opposition outside their home ground.
Newcastle are expected to welcome back Joelinton from suspension, although his participation remains uncertain due to a facial injury sustained during the recent EFL Cup match. Joe Willock, who has been nursing a minor injury, is anticipated to be fit for selection. However, the Magpies will be without several key players, including first-choice goalkeeper Nick Pope and forward Callum Wilson, among others.
With Wilson sidelined, Isak is poised to lead the attack, having already netted an impressive 23 Premier League goals in 2024, placing him third in the league's scoring charts. Murphy, in fine form, is likely to retain his place alongside Anthony Gordon in Newcastle's attacking setup.
The Magpies are expected to adopt a 4-2-3-1 formation, featuring Martin Dubravka in goal, Tino Livramento and Lewis Hall as full-backs, and Fabian Schar paired with Dan Burn in central defence. Sandro Tonali and Bruno Guimaraes are set to anchor the midfield, with Willock taking a more advanced role, while Isak will lead the line, supported by Murphy and Gordon.
For Aston Villa, the attacking formation remains uncertain, particularly with Ollie Watkins potentially returning to the starting XI after limited recent involvement. Jhon Duran, however, has been in outstanding form, contributing four crucial goals this season and boasting the league's best minutes-per-goal ratio, scoring every 80 minutes. Both Duran and Watkins have seven goals this term, but Emery has often prioritised midfield strength over pairing the two strikers.
In midfield, Amadou Onana is expected to partner with Boubacar Kamara and Youri Tielemans, providing both stability and creativity. Leon Bailey's recent return from injury adds depth to the squad, while Jacob Ramsey is back in training but will not feature in this match.
Aston Villa are likely to line up in a 4-2-3-1 formation, with Emiliano Martinez in goal, Matty Cash and Lucas Digne as full-backs, and Ezri Konsa and Pau Torres in central defence. Kamara and Onana will serve as the defensive pivot, with Tielemans taking on a more advanced role, supported by John McGinn and Morgan Rogers. Duran will lead the attack, posing a significant threat to Newcastle's defence.
Duran has proven to be a vital asset for Villa, having scored a league-high four match-winning goals this season. His impact during crucial moments and ability to score make him a constant threat, and he will be pivotal against Newcastle's solid defence.
While Aston Villa possess the quality to challenge Newcastle United, their poor away form and Boxing Day history may hinder their chances against a revitalised Magpies side. With Isak in formidable form and Newcastle enjoying the advantage of home soil, they are favoured to secure a victory in what promises to be a closely contested match.